{"id":23473,"date":"2015-10-08T14:27:18","date_gmt":"2015-10-08T18:27:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fondriest.com\/news\/?p=23473"},"modified":"2021-11-10T16:40:19","modified_gmt":"2021-11-10T20:40:19","slug":"u-hawaii-scientists-predict-future-with-more-extreme-pacific-sea-level-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fondriest.com\/news\/u-hawaii-scientists-predict-future-with-more-extreme-pacific-sea-level-events.htm","title":{"rendered":"U. Hawaii Scientists Predict Future With More Extreme Pacific Sea Level Events"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tropical Pacific island nations already struggling to adapt to rising sea levels may also have to contend with greater fluctuations in seasonal sea levels in the future. The fluctuation risk appears linked to a change in El Ni\u00f1o that is forecasted to affect wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

Researchers at the University of Hawaii are making the prediction after analyzing climate models and tide gauge data with help from others at Australia\u2019s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO).<\/p>\n

Scientists at both institutions say that El Ni\u00f1o causes warm waters and higher sea levels to shift eastward around the Pacific Ocean. These understandably pull waters away from western shores. Around six months after, researchers have charted a similar phenomenon occurring across the north and south portions, with waters shifting north and leaving them nearly a foot lower in the Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n

But the big question is how these sea-level shifts will be affected in a future of climate change.<\/p>\n

To get at the answer, researchers used climate models to account for predicted increases in greenhouse gas emissions. These were run alongside simulations incorporating observed climate and tide-gauge data so that results of one could help verify the other.<\/p>\n

Results weren\u2019t good, as the calculations showed that climate change will likely worsen sea level fluctuation extremes linked to El Ni\u00f1o. What\u2019s more, wind impacts are likely to become more intense, scientists found, as both those from El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a were found to double the frequency of sea level swings, especially in the southwestern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

\"Extreme

Extreme low sea levels occurred during August in parts of the western Pacific associated with the ongoing strong El Ni\u00f1o. Data from AVISO satellite measurements. (Credit: Widlansky, et al., 2015)<\/p><\/div>\n

In explaining some of these shifts, researchers relied on previous work to point out that, near the end of a strong El Ni\u00f1o, tide gauge measurements around the island of Guam quickly return to normal following shifts in the east-west sea level fluctuation. But those near Samoa continue to drop because of a lag in the north-south fluctuation.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuring these strong events, the summer rainband over Samoa, called the South Pacific Convergence Zone, shifts toward the equator and alters the trade winds and ocean currents, which in turn changes the sea level,\u201d said Matthew Widlansky, postdoctoral fellow at U. Hawaii\u2019s International Pacific Research Center, in a statement. He is lead author of the open-access study published in the scientific journal Science Advances.<\/p>\n

From that knowledge base, the climate and tide-gauge simulations helped scientists overcome the research\u2019s next hurdle.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe next logical step in our work was to understand how future changes in winds, projected by most climate models, will impact the interannual swings in sea level,\u201d said Axel Timmermann, a professor of oceanography at U. Hawaii, in the release. \u201cWe noted a trend in greater variability and were surprised at first to find not only more frequent and prolonged drops in sea level, but also more frequent high sea level events. This will further increase the risk of coastal inundations.\u201d<\/p>\n

The findings weren\u2019t very surprising, as they lined up well with those from other studies predicting that the atmospheric effects of both El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a will likely become stronger in a future of climate change. But authors hope the study\u2019s results will help make predictions of rising sea levels, as well as their fluctuations, more accurate in times to come.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe possibility of more frequent flooding in some areas and sea level drops in others would have severe consequences for the vulnerable coastlines of Pacific islands,\u201d said Widlansky in the statement.<\/p>\n

Top image:\u00a0An aerial view of Guam’s Apra Harbor in 2003, home to a U.S. Navy base. (Credit: Public Domain)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With modeling tools, climate simulations and tide-gauge data, U. Hawaii scientists predict extreme Pacific sea level events will become more common.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":23465,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,44],"tags":[157,60,109,347,221,183],"class_list":["post-23473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured-articles","category-oceans-coasts","tag-climate-change","tag-featured","tag-news-ticker","tag-oceans-coasts","tag-university-of-hawaii","tag-water-level"],"remote_post_permalink":false,"remote_post_featured_image":false,"yoast_head":"\nU. Hawaii Scientists Predict Future With More Extreme Pacific Sea Level Events<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With modeling tools, climate simulations and tide-gauge data, U. 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