{"id":29680,"date":"2018-07-02T16:13:57","date_gmt":"2018-07-02T20:13:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fondriest.com\/news\/?p=29680"},"modified":"2025-03-17T13:05:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T17:05:47","slug":"great-lakes-meteotsunami-experts-hone-in-on-big-wave-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fondriest.com\/news\/great-lakes-meteotsunami-experts-hone-in-on-big-wave-forecasts.htm","title":{"rendered":"Great Lakes Meteotsunami Experts Hone in on Big Wave Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

This spring, a pier along Lake Michigan\u2019s eastern shore disappeared from view as water levels surged and swallowed the structure whole. The lake receded just as quickly.<\/span><\/p>\n

The cause was a meteotsunami \u2013 a big wave triggered by the confluence of just the right wind speed and pressure generally brought on by a thunderstorm. \u00a0Though the disappearing act this one pulled on the Ludington pier was a novelty, the phenomenon is potentially dangerous, historically misdiagnosed and poorly forecasted in the Great Lakes.<\/span><\/p>\n

After a Lake Erie meteotsunami in 2012 swept swimmers off a beach and swamped marinas, Great Lakes researchers honed in on what causes these waves and how to warn beachgoers and boaters one might be on the way. Today, we have a better understanding of how common Great Lakes meteotsunamis are and forecasting tools are in sight.<\/span><\/p>\n

An analysis of historical weather and lake level data <\/span>published in the journal Nature<\/span><\/a> found that the Great Lakes typically see around 100 meteotsunamis a year, and a destructive one every 10 years. Past examples had been mislabeled or missed completely because this type of wave was historically poorly understood, with only a couple of researchers in places like Croatia and Russia studying them, according to <\/span>Eric Anderson<\/span><\/a>, an oceanographer at NOAA\u2019s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhen I say a couple, it\u2019s literally a couple of folks that have been looking into this maybe on the order of 10 to 20 years,\u201d said Anderson, a co-author on the Nature study. \u201cBefore that, the terminology wasn\u2019t even out there.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Media coverage of the pier-swallowing Ludington wave referred to it as both a meteotsunami and a seiche, another type of large-scale wave that can lead to dramatically fluctuating water levels on the Great Lakes. But that\u2019s not what happened here. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSometimes I see that and I think, \u2018OK, we have to do better at explaining the difference between these two,\u2019\u201d Anderson said. \u201cAt the same time, I\u2019m also excited that they\u2019re covering it or that they\u2019re even using the word meteotsunami even if it\u2019s thrown in there with seiche.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

So what is it? As a thunderstorm propagates over a lake, atmospheric pressure pushes down on the surface. That causes a rise in water level \u2014 a wave \u2014 on the leading edge of the storm, just like pushing down on a waterbed, Anderson said. If the storm happens to be moving across the lake at the same speed as that wave, it can continue feeding energy into the wave and growing it to a potentially destructive size. A meteotsunami approaching a Great Lakes shore won\u2019t look like a normal wave with breaking action the people are familiar with. Instead, they come on as a quick flood of water.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Great

Southern_Lake_Michigan_Wave: An animation of a meteotsunami in southern Lake Michigan. (Credit: NOAA CIGLR)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

A seiche is also a single large wave caused by strong winds but on the scale of an entire lake. Scientists typically describe it as water sloshing back and forth in a bathtub, with lake levels dropping on one end and rising on the other, oscillating every 4 to 14 hours or so depending on the location.<\/span><\/p>\n

On a spectrum, meteotsunamis fall between seiches and typical wind waves seen washing up on beaches every few seconds, Anderson said, with a wave period of between 2 minutes and 2 hours.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn our case, we have a lot of waves (in the historical record) that were in that part of the spectrum that weren\u2019t really explained,\u201d Anderson said. <\/span><\/p>\n

But those gaps have since been filled in by the Nature study, led by Adam Bechle and Chin Wu at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. That project cross-referenced 17 years of water level data collected every 7 minutes at 32 NOAA with barometric pressure or wind speed data from the same period. They found that meteotsunamis are more common than previously thought, yet \u201cwater level oscillations associated with meteotsunamis are not considered in planning or design along the Great Lakes coasts, nor can current forecasting systems predict their occurrence for public safety efforts,\u201d they wrote. \u201cIn general, the meteotsunami threat is a serious coastal hazard for the Great Lakes that has to date been underestimated.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The study also found these events most commonly occur between late spring and summer \u2014 the busy season for Great Lakes beaches. That makes forecasting these waves and warning swimmers and boaters particularly important.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Great

A map of reported meteotsunami events and the frequency of events observed at water level stations. (Credit: NOAA GLERL as published in Nature)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

Since meteotsunamis are typically associated with thunderstorms, swimmers tend to get out of the water on their own when one is on the way. But that\u2019s not always the case. And the waves are particularly dangerous once they decouple from the storm that created them. Though the storm may dissipate or blow inland, the wave is already in the lake. A meteotsunami that strikes one shore under foreboding skies can reflect and travel to the other side, swamping a beach with perfect swimming weather. That reflection is another level of uncertainty that predictive tools will have to account for, Anderson said. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re really looking at honing in on that forecast piece now,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re not there yet. But it\u2019s something I think we\u2019ll have in a couple years.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Nature study also notes that meteotsunami patterns may shift with climate change. That will depend on how certain types of storms become more or less common in the future. Take derechos \u2014 long-lived, straight-line windstorms known for damaging winds \u2014 for example. One of the strongest such systems on record in the U.S. blew from Minnesota to New York 20 years ago, producing hurricane-strength winds and a Lake Michigan meteotsunami that capsized a tug boat. <\/span><\/p>\n

Derecho conditions could become more intense in the region, Anderson said. Wave speeds are based on depth and will stay roughly the same in the Great Lakes. But how that syncs up with future derechos could change. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey could change so that derechos are suddenly going at just the right sweet-spot speed to produce more meteotsunamis. Or maybe it\u2019s going to happen the other way and they\u2019re going to be going too fast,\u201d Anderson said. \u201cExactly how that plays out remains to be seen.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Top image: Great Lakes meteotsunamis are associated with pressure and wind speed changes from thunderstorms over the water. (Credit: NWS\/Courtesy of Paola Catallo-Lieghio)
\n<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Meteotsunamis are big waves that have been historically mislabeled and poorly forecasted in the Great Lakes. Experts are learning more and predictive tools are in sight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":29682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,32,6],"tags":[60,125,31,772,103,109,74,774,773],"class_list":["post-29680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured-articles","category-lakes-reservoirs","category-monitoring_tech-htm","tag-featured","tag-great-lakes","tag-lake-michigan","tag-meteotsunami","tag-news-2","tag-news-ticker","tag-noaa","tag-storms","tag-waves"],"remote_post_permalink":false,"remote_post_featured_image":false,"yoast_head":"\nGreat Lakes Meteotsunami Experts Hone in on Big Wave Forecasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Meteotsunamis are big waves that have been historically mislabeled and poorly forecasted in the Great Lakes. 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