{"id":32043,"date":"2019-09-13T10:08:00","date_gmt":"2019-09-13T14:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fondriest.com\/news\/?p=32043"},"modified":"2019-09-13T10:08:00","modified_gmt":"2019-09-13T14:08:00","slug":"extreme-wave-heights-ocean-winds-increasing-globally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fondriest.com\/news\/extreme-wave-heights-ocean-winds-increasing-globally.htm","title":{"rendered":"Extreme Wave Heights, Ocean Winds Increasing Globally"},"content":{"rendered":"

Around the world, extreme wave heights and ocean winds are increasing. The greatest increase is happening in the Southern Ocean, according to<\/span> recent research<\/span><\/a> from<\/span> the University of Melbourne<\/span><\/a>, and Dr. Ian Young corresponded with EM about what inspired the work.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOur main interest is ocean waves, and we are interested in wind because it generates waves,\u201d explains Dr. Young. \u201cOcean waves are important for the design of coastal and offshore structures, the erosion of beaches and coastal flooding, and the safety of shipping.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Waves also have a role in determining how much heat, energy and gas can be trapped in the ocean.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe major reason why changes in wave height may be important is because of sea level rise,\u201d details Dr. Young. \u201cPeople are concerned about climate-induced sea level rise because of associated coastal flooding. However, over the next 100 years, storms will still be the biggest cause of coastal flooding. Sea level rise will increase the frequency and severity of these floods. If wave heights are increasing this will impact the erosion of beaches, the extent and frequency of coastal flooding.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Comparing data over decades<\/span><\/h2>\n

In order to determine how wind speed and wave heights might be changing over time, the team looked at data collected between 1985-2018 by 31 satellites\u2014about 4 billion observations. Then, the team compared those observations to measurements taken by over 80 data buoys deployed around the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough we now have many more satellites in orbit, the basic systems they use to sense wind and waves has remained very stable,\u201d Dr. Young describes. \u201cWe went to enormous efforts to calibrate every one of the 31 satellites we used against ocean buoys to ensure they gave consistent measurements over this time. We also analyzed the data in a variety of different ways to ensure there was no bias caused by the fact that the number of satellites in orbit has changed over the years.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

To calibrate the data coming from the satellites using the network of 80 oceanographic buoys, the team looks at what are called satellite \u201cmatchups.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"wave

Global trends in extreme (90th percentile) wave height<\/strong> over the period 1985-2018. Areas in red indicate increasing values, whereas blue indicates decreases. (Credit: Professor Ian Young, University of Melbourne, https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/multimedia\/pub\/199093.php?from=427795)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cWhen a satellite flies over a buoy and both measure at the same time, it’s a ‘matchup,’\u201d states Dr. Young. \u201cThis allows us to calibrate the satellite. We use lots of buoys to ensure our calibration dataset is very large. We also validate the calibration by looking at spots where two different satellites fly over the same patch of ocean at the same time. This way we can ensure they are producing very similar results.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

With data from more than 80 buoys and 31 satellites, the team is presenting conclusions based on the biggest, most detailed dataset of its kind.<\/span><\/p>\n

Extreme waves and winds<\/span><\/h2>\n

The team found that all of the world\u2019s oceans have become more stormy over this period, but the Southern Ocean has experienced the most increase in extreme wind speeds and wave heights. In fact, extreme winds in the Southern Ocean have increased by 1.5 meters per second, or 8 percent, over the past 30 years. Over that same time period, extreme waves have increased by 30 centimeters or 5 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe key issue is whether these increases will be sustained into the future\u2014this is when we will start to see real impact on coastlines,\u201d remarks Dr. Young. \u201cEven small changes in wave conditions can be important for beach erosion.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Interestingly, not just the magnitude of the waves, but also their mean originating direction, is changing.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis can be very important for beach stability,\u201d comments Dr. Young. \u201cOur beaches are generally in equilibrium with the waves. If the wave direction changes we can see very large erosion of the beach as things are no longer in equilibrium. The beach wants to re-align to the new wave direction.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"wave

Global trends in extreme (90th percentile) wind speed<\/strong> over the period 1985-2018. Areas in red indicate increasing values, whereas blue indicates decreases. (Credit: Professor Ian Young, University of Melbourne, https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/multimedia\/pub\/199093.php?from=427795)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

In terms of how we think about coastal living and development in the future, Dr. Young sees this work as another piece of the potential sea level rise puzzle.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to understand that coasts are dynamic systems,\u201d says Dr. Young. \u201cIf the waves that shape these systems change, then the coast will also change. This means we need careful planning with an understanding of coastal environments.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Along these lines, international groups are refining the satellite systems the team used in this research to obtain even more accurate <\/span>measurements.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe <\/span>European Space Agency<\/span><\/a> is funding a major international project to reanalyze all of this data from the very earliest missions,\u201d Dr. Young adds. \u201cThis will process the data at a more basic level than we were able to conduct. Although we went to great effort to build a consistent dataset, it has its limitations. The new processing should result in an even more precise and consistent dataset than we had available.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Dr. Young also stresses the need to develop a better understanding of how much of this change is due to long-term climate change and how much is due to multi-decadal oscillations like <\/span>ENSO<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Pacific Decadal Oscillation<\/span><\/a>, and <\/span>the Southern Annular Mode<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAs we have a dataset that is only 33 years long, we need to be careful if there are very long term periodic oscillations,\u201d explains Dr. Young. \u201cImagine if you had an oscillation with a period of 20 years and we measured for 30 years. We would see 1 and a half oscillations. This could easily be interpreted as a trend when it is just that we have only sampled the oscillation for a short period.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The team is continuing data analysis to look at these effects. Meanwhile, the results raise the question of whether it is that storm intensity is increasing or the frequency of storms is increasing\u2014or both.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe can’t tell this from our data because of the way the satellites sample,\u201d details Dr. Young. \u201cThe only way to get this sort of information is from computer models. As yet the coupled climate\/wave models are not good enough to give reliable estimates for extreme conditions. However, as our computing resources increase we will be able to address these issues.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Moving forward and trying to answer these questions, Dr. Young sees the value of a longer-term dataset.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe most important thing is for us to continue to maintain these buoy networks,\u201d comments Dr. Young. \u201cThey are expensive to maintain, so there is always a desire to scale them back. Funding agencies ask why we need buoys now that we have satellites in orbit. The answer is we need the buoys to calibrate the satellites. The satellites can then give us much more data.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Data from buoys and satellites reveals that extreme ocean winds and wave heights are increasing worldwide, especially in the Southern Ocean.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":32045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,5,8,44],"tags":[1681,1622,1955,1957,60,109,1952,1951,1954,1953,1217,1956,1950],"class_list":["post-32043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earth-atmosphere","category-featured-articles","category-newsfeed","category-oceans-coasts","tag-currents","tag-data-buoys","tag-dr-ian-young","tag-european-space-agency","tag-featured","tag-news-ticker","tag-ocean-waves","tag-ocean-winds","tag-satellite-data","tag-sea-level-rise","tag-southern-ocean","tag-university-of-melbourne","tag-wave-heights"],"remote_post_permalink":false,"remote_post_featured_image":false,"yoast_head":"\nExtreme Wave Heights, Ocean 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